Trend and range

Thread by Dr Cat@DoctorCatX · Jul 17, 2025 · 17 posts · 1,372 words · 9 min read

Trend and range 🧵👇 [Ichimoku Thread #11]
1/17View on X
1/16 ⚠️It's extremely important to be able to tell the difference between a range and a trend. Because the price behaves very differently in these two modes and if you don't distinguish them you can get unpleasantly surprised. If you apply trend trading strategies in a range environment, you will get rekt. And vice-versa. ❓But first, what is trend and what is a range? 📈A trend is the directional price movement caused by imbalance between sellers and buyers. On an uptrend, there are more buyers than sellers. On a downtrend, there are more sellers than buyers. 📊That's why one of the most wide spread misconceptions is that a trend needs to sustain high volume to keep going. In fact, it's exactly the opposite: low volume is an indication of a trend and most volume most often comes exactly at tops at bottoms: where demand meets supply and the trend ends. This is also related to the explanation of why at the tops virtually everyone is bullish and at the bottoms virtually everyone is bearish. During an uptrend, more and more people buy. But when literally everyone has already bought their max allocation (and hopes the price to go up), because that is "everyone", there is no one left to buy more to move the price up. 🐻➡️🐂 So the trends end exactly when the last person buys (last bear turns into a bull).
2/17View on X
2/16 ⚖️Where demand meets an equal amount of supply, the market is in equilibrium (balance). 📈🟰❌⚖️In other words, the trend represents lack of equilibrium between sellers and buyers. In Ichimoku, when the price is at Tenkan Sen, buyers and sellers are in balance short-term. At Kijun Sen - they are in balance mid-term. At SSB: they are in balance long-term. When the price moves away from some of the Han-ne lines (Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen, SSB), this movement shows that the balance (equilibrium) between buyers and sellers is lost. This lack of equilibrium is a trend.
3/17View on X
3/16 In Ichimoku, during a trend, the five lines and the price are aligned in a specific order. On an active moving uptrend, Chiko Span is above the candles and the kumo, the price is above Tenkan Sen which is above Kijun Sen, which is preferably above the kumo. Also SSA must be above SSB (of course, in the kumo which is printed in the future, not at the current one). It’s preferable at least one of Kijun Sen and SSB to be pointing up - to show that buyers are making fresh highs in the mid-or long term periods. On a downtrend, Chiko Span is below the candles and the kumo, the price is below Tenkan Sen which is below Kijun Sen, which is preferably below the kumo. And SSA must be below SSB. If the price closes below SSB, there is no uptrend (and vice versa) because SSB is the ultimate support/resistance level in Ichimoku – the long term one. ➡️The bigger the gap between Chiko Span and the candles: the stronger the trend momentum. ➡️The wider the kumo, the stronger the trend momentum, and the more sustainable/healthy the trend is. Of course, the kumo in the future. The kumo’s width in the present at the price show only the strength of the support/resistance it provides, if hit.
4/17View on X
4/16 If all the essential conditions above are met, but Kijun Sen and SSB are flat, the price is consolidating. You can think if it like an inactive trend on pause, or something between a trend and neutral state.
5/17View on X
5/16 On a very strong trend, the price bounces off Tenkan Sen and keeps moving in the direction of the trend.
6/17View on X
6/16 On a strong trend, the price bounces off Kijun Sen and keeps moving in the direction of the trend.
7/17View on X
7/16 On a weak trend, the prices bounces off SSA or SSB and keeps moving in the direction of the trend. This is also called "slow grind" or "slow bleed", respectively. Obviously occasions like this can be viewed also as multiple small trends interrupted by ranges.
8/17View on X
8/16 ❓What is a range? A range is the directionless movement of the price between two boundaries. The price moves between the upper boundary (resistance) and the lower boundary (support), until one of them breaks. I would say that there are two types of range: 1⃣A wide range where you have enough distance to trade top to bottom of the range.
9/17View on X
9/16 2⃣And a chop/tight mess which is simply noise you should stay away from, especially on LTF/MTF. Otherwise chop on HTF can be used to build positions with optimal odds so you are loaded heavily with very low risk or even with SL at BE when the train leaves the station. In a chop, all 5 lines interact with each other and there are plenty of fake signals - if you don't understand Ichimoku and try to read the signals in an independent and isolated manner.
10/17View on X
10/16 📚According to Ichimoku's Theory, in a range Kijun Sen is the center of the range and the price oscillates around it with pretty much equally sized moves. You can use that knowledge to estimate price targets in a range:
11/17View on X
11/16 There are a few ways to define range in Ichimoku: 1⃣ If Chiko Span is in the candles, THERE IS NO TREND, and the price is in a range. CS is the only line out of the five lines which can invalidate the rest four: and how funny it is that a lot of people who use Ichimoku remove it from the chart. So even if all the other essential trend conditions are there except Chiko Span, which is in the candles, this is a range / neutral chart which can go either way. Think of it this way: if CS is in the candles it means that the price hasn’t moved in the last 26 periods – which is the most important Kihon Suchi cycle. If in one such key cycle price hasn’t progressed in the direction of the trend, there is no trend.
12/17View on X
12/16 2⃣ If the price is in the kumo. Then, the range is between the upper and lower boundaries of the kumo – even though the shape can be weird and irregular you will see how the price respects these boundaries very well. Also remember, that as rule of a thumb, the kumo is a no-trade zone. Because inside it there is the most intense fight between bears and bulls before breakout to either direction. And as a consequence, the PA inside the kumo is chaotic, choppy, and quite unpredictable.
13/17View on X
13/16 Of course, there are still clues even inside the kumo though. For example, if the kumo is bullish (in the future) and the price is above Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen and CS with gap above candles and Kijun Sen is pointing up – that may be a clue that the price should cross the kumo to the other side.
14/17View on X
14/16 3⃣ If SSB and Kijun Sen (even more if SSA as well) are flat (or not moving in the direction of the trend), even though all other trend conditions are there – this is a consolidating market which ranges above/below the kumo. But, this consolidation might kill completely the uptrend and reverse the price to the other side of the kumo. For example like $XRPBTC at the bottom might have looked like a downtrend to some people but by studying the curve of the Ichimoku lines you could see that it was at a bottom of a range. Of course, in this specific case the PA must be studied carefully though and to evaluate the risk/reward. Because a ranging market above/below the kumo may still continue its move also in the trend direction.
15/17View on X
15/16 This thread covered trend and range as per Ichimoku. If you found this thread useful feel free to share it so it can reach more people.
16/17View on X
16/16 Previous lessons 1. The Ichimoku TA system https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1807703250189099208 2. Tenkan Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1810173264020328553 3. Kijun Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1813659904688685089 4. Real and fake TK crosses https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1815295282793390287 5. SSA https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1817833046088843737 6. SSB https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1822907741918175638 7. Kumo https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1827755204713865373 8. Chiko Span https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1830540632428827015 9. Sanyaku Signals https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1834528626513006837 10. Forecast lines https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1938597387024343199
17/17View on X

Trend and range

Thread by Dr Cat@DoctorCatX · Jul 17, 2025 · 17 posts · 1,372 words · 9 min read

Trend and range 🧵👇 [Ichimoku Thread #11]
1/17View on X
1/16 ⚠️It's extremely important to be able to tell the difference between a range and a trend. Because the price behaves very differently in these two modes and if you don't distinguish them you can get unpleasantly surprised. If you apply trend trading strategies in a range environment, you will get rekt. And vice-versa. ❓But first, what is trend and what is a range? 📈A trend is the directional price movement caused by imbalance between sellers and buyers. On an uptrend, there are more buyers than sellers. On a downtrend, there are more sellers than buyers. 📊That's why one of the most wide spread misconceptions is that a trend needs to sustain high volume to keep going. In fact, it's exactly the opposite: low volume is an indication of a trend and most volume most often comes exactly at tops at bottoms: where demand meets supply and the trend ends. This is also related to the explanation of why at the tops virtually everyone is bullish and at the bottoms virtually everyone is bearish. During an uptrend, more and more people buy. But when literally everyone has already bought their max allocation (and hopes the price to go up), because that is "everyone", there is no one left to buy more to move the price up. 🐻➡️🐂 So the trends end exactly when the last person buys (last bear turns into a bull).
2/17View on X
2/16 ⚖️Where demand meets an equal amount of supply, the market is in equilibrium (balance). 📈🟰❌⚖️In other words, the trend represents lack of equilibrium between sellers and buyers. In Ichimoku, when the price is at Tenkan Sen, buyers and sellers are in balance short-term. At Kijun Sen - they are in balance mid-term. At SSB: they are in balance long-term. When the price moves away from some of the Han-ne lines (Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen, SSB), this movement shows that the balance (equilibrium) between buyers and sellers is lost. This lack of equilibrium is a trend.
3/17View on X
3/16 In Ichimoku, during a trend, the five lines and the price are aligned in a specific order. On an active moving uptrend, Chiko Span is above the candles and the kumo, the price is above Tenkan Sen which is above Kijun Sen, which is preferably above the kumo. Also SSA must be above SSB (of course, in the kumo which is printed in the future, not at the current one). It’s preferable at least one of Kijun Sen and SSB to be pointing up - to show that buyers are making fresh highs in the mid-or long term periods. On a downtrend, Chiko Span is below the candles and the kumo, the price is below Tenkan Sen which is below Kijun Sen, which is preferably below the kumo. And SSA must be below SSB. If the price closes below SSB, there is no uptrend (and vice versa) because SSB is the ultimate support/resistance level in Ichimoku – the long term one. ➡️The bigger the gap between Chiko Span and the candles: the stronger the trend momentum. ➡️The wider the kumo, the stronger the trend momentum, and the more sustainable/healthy the trend is. Of course, the kumo in the future. The kumo’s width in the present at the price show only the strength of the support/resistance it provides, if hit.
4/17View on X
4/16 If all the essential conditions above are met, but Kijun Sen and SSB are flat, the price is consolidating. You can think if it like an inactive trend on pause, or something between a trend and neutral state.
5/17View on X
5/16 On a very strong trend, the price bounces off Tenkan Sen and keeps moving in the direction of the trend.
6/17View on X
6/16 On a strong trend, the price bounces off Kijun Sen and keeps moving in the direction of the trend.
7/17View on X
7/16 On a weak trend, the prices bounces off SSA or SSB and keeps moving in the direction of the trend. This is also called "slow grind" or "slow bleed", respectively. Obviously occasions like this can be viewed also as multiple small trends interrupted by ranges.
8/17View on X
8/16 ❓What is a range? A range is the directionless movement of the price between two boundaries. The price moves between the upper boundary (resistance) and the lower boundary (support), until one of them breaks. I would say that there are two types of range: 1⃣A wide range where you have enough distance to trade top to bottom of the range.
9/17View on X
9/16 2⃣And a chop/tight mess which is simply noise you should stay away from, especially on LTF/MTF. Otherwise chop on HTF can be used to build positions with optimal odds so you are loaded heavily with very low risk or even with SL at BE when the train leaves the station. In a chop, all 5 lines interact with each other and there are plenty of fake signals - if you don't understand Ichimoku and try to read the signals in an independent and isolated manner.
10/17View on X
10/16 📚According to Ichimoku's Theory, in a range Kijun Sen is the center of the range and the price oscillates around it with pretty much equally sized moves. You can use that knowledge to estimate price targets in a range:
11/17View on X
11/16 There are a few ways to define range in Ichimoku: 1⃣ If Chiko Span is in the candles, THERE IS NO TREND, and the price is in a range. CS is the only line out of the five lines which can invalidate the rest four: and how funny it is that a lot of people who use Ichimoku remove it from the chart. So even if all the other essential trend conditions are there except Chiko Span, which is in the candles, this is a range / neutral chart which can go either way. Think of it this way: if CS is in the candles it means that the price hasn’t moved in the last 26 periods – which is the most important Kihon Suchi cycle. If in one such key cycle price hasn’t progressed in the direction of the trend, there is no trend.
12/17View on X
12/16 2⃣ If the price is in the kumo. Then, the range is between the upper and lower boundaries of the kumo – even though the shape can be weird and irregular you will see how the price respects these boundaries very well. Also remember, that as rule of a thumb, the kumo is a no-trade zone. Because inside it there is the most intense fight between bears and bulls before breakout to either direction. And as a consequence, the PA inside the kumo is chaotic, choppy, and quite unpredictable.
13/17View on X
13/16 Of course, there are still clues even inside the kumo though. For example, if the kumo is bullish (in the future) and the price is above Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen and CS with gap above candles and Kijun Sen is pointing up – that may be a clue that the price should cross the kumo to the other side.
14/17View on X
14/16 3⃣ If SSB and Kijun Sen (even more if SSA as well) are flat (or not moving in the direction of the trend), even though all other trend conditions are there – this is a consolidating market which ranges above/below the kumo. But, this consolidation might kill completely the uptrend and reverse the price to the other side of the kumo. For example like $XRPBTC at the bottom might have looked like a downtrend to some people but by studying the curve of the Ichimoku lines you could see that it was at a bottom of a range. Of course, in this specific case the PA must be studied carefully though and to evaluate the risk/reward. Because a ranging market above/below the kumo may still continue its move also in the trend direction.
15/17View on X
15/16 This thread covered trend and range as per Ichimoku. If you found this thread useful feel free to share it so it can reach more people.
16/17View on X
16/16 Previous lessons 1. The Ichimoku TA system https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1807703250189099208 2. Tenkan Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1810173264020328553 3. Kijun Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1813659904688685089 4. Real and fake TK crosses https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1815295282793390287 5. SSA https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1817833046088843737 6. SSB https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1822907741918175638 7. Kumo https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1827755204713865373 8. Chiko Span https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1830540632428827015 9. Sanyaku Signals https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1834528626513006837 10. Forecast lines https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1938597387024343199
17/17View on X

Trend and range

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Trend and range

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