Bull and bear traps

Thread by Dr Cat@DoctorCatX · Jul 19, 2025 · 13 posts · 1,421 words · 9 min read

Bull and bear traps [Ichimoku Thread #13 🧵👇]
1/13View on X
1/12 👀🪤Even though Ichimoku is best suited for trend following, one of its advantages lays in the fact that it can help also navigate a range extremely well and give you huge hints whether some lows/highs are a trap or a real breakout - all thanks to the time factor. 🫴Here I will cover some typical situations which can give you a hint whether something is a bull/bear trap ready to reverse or not. Some of them are in the kumo, but some of them are even beyond the kumo (above the kumo for a bull trap and vice-versa). ☁️🔥 Beyond the kumo is where the best traps occur because they are overextended in the opposite territory and if you can spot them and fade them the risk/reward for a super early entry is excellent.
2/13View on X
2/12 🪤☁️First, let's start with the traps within the kumo. Obviously, a trap should occur at the bottom or top of the kumo, where the price either rejects or breaks. ❓But how can you guess which is more likely: to break the kumo or to reverse? There are a few hints for that. Of course, we already know that the kumo must not be thin if we expect it to hold but using he rest of the lines you can get further clues. 1⃣ If the kumo has flipped already bearish in the future, Tenkan Sen is crossed bearish below Kijun Sen, and Chiko Span is below the candles (or mostly touching them): the kumo top should offer strong resistance for rejection. This is a nice bull trap which you could fade. Because the PA already has a bearish bias. As opposed, if the price with such parameters tests the kumo from the other side, the kumo it's more likely to break from there.
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3/12 2⃣ By the time the price tests the kumo, Chiko Span is at the opposite side of the candles. I.e., if the price tries to break bullish the kumo but CS is below the candles. This is an EXTREMELY rare situation with a super high probability. I'd say, around 90% chance for this to be a bull trap
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4/12 3⃣ An example for a bear trap is when the price tests the bottom of kumo, while SSB is going up and Chiko Span is above the kumo. Very high chance for this support to hold and to end up as a bear trap. 🇬🇧🇯🇵This is because, translated to plain English this setup simply means: "Test the ultimate support level (SSB), while still being on an uptrend (because SSB is pointing up in the future), and while the second price (CS) is also above support". Actually in this specific case, as you see, SSB in the future actually turned down by the wick when the price tested SSB in the present. But, by the time you place your buy order you wouldn't have known that and if you had put a nice gap for SL allowing for decent wicks you would still have the odds in your favor.
5/13View on X
5/12 Now, let's see some bull and bear traps examples beyond the kumo. 👀⛳️This is where the best R:R comes because the price is overextended and a normally above the kumo most people are bullish if they can't see the red flags. 3⃣ Chiko Span hasn't closed above the kumo (or it's shadow). Remember, the kumo shadow is the most extended part of the kumo which may look like an "island" between the price and CS. For full breakout confirmation you want CS to close entirely above the kumo, including above shadows, if any. And, if you add to that another factor that SSB is going down (in the future), this increases the chance for fading this pump. ❓📈Can the price breakout? Yes of course. 🫴But if you short this setup at the level of the kumo shadow you get an excellent risk reward. You literally short the pico top. When SSB is pointing down and the price is above the kumo and CS hasn't closed above it (and its shadow) this means: "The price has entered a bullish (max-extended) territory (above kumo), while still being on a long-term downtrend (SSB pointing down), and without a confirmed breakout (because CS hasn't closed above the kumo shadow).
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6/12 4⃣ In this situation, the price is above the kumo but you get a Chiko Span divergence signaling a reversal. Using CS divergence you can spot the exact candle were the reversal occurs and even forecast the exact timing of the reversal in advance. And, another hint for this bull trap is again that SSB is still pointing down in the future (its flat but last turn is to the downside to be more precise).
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7/12 5⃣ In this situation, the price has lost Kijun Sen and is making a bearish retest. ⚠️Now keep in mind that if Kijun Sen is lost too early while Chiko Span is still above the candles it's not that clear whether it won't be reclaimed. To be more certain that it would reject when retested, you want either CS to be below the candles, or, to have a Kyushu Ashi bearish signal - as in the example below. I will post a separate educational thread about Kyushu Ashi in the future.
8/13View on X
8/12 6⃣ If the price has broken below the kumo, but keeps crawling below it without continuation and in the same time Chiko Span is above the past kumo - this is very suspicious. Theoretically if CS goes below the kumo the price can still dump, but such cases from my experience end up as bear trap around ~70% of the time. 🐻⛳️People who don't use Ichimoku in this case can see a bear flag. 🇯🇵🐻🪤But Ichimoku thanks to the time factor hints for a bear trap instead.
9/13View on X
9/12 7⃣ When by the time Chiko Span crossed the past kumo, it also starts to cross through a "forest" of candles wich are below the kumo. This is very untypical and rare to see and very suspicious. Even though CS can eventually cross the candles as well and confirm the breakout, such situations have a good chance to end up being a bear trap. 🫴📚Remember, as per the rules of the Sanyaku signals which are the healthiest breakouts, CS must have already crossed beyond the candles before the price closes beyond the kumo. So this is an example of an "unhealthy" breakout.
10/13View on X
10/12 🫴🐂🪤Last but not least, there is another example of a trap which is on the "right" side of the kumo. I.e., a bear trap below the kumo or vice versa. But this is a very rare setup to see with a super high probability when the price is overextended and with a huge chance of rejection. This is when you analyse two timeframes, one smaller and one bigger. Let's say the bigger one has 2x-3x the ratio of the smaller one. And you see that the price is testing some key deep resistance (for example, Kijun Sen), on the higher timefame, while, on a close basis Chiko Span is below the candles on BOTH timeframes. This is super likely to reject because CS tells us that the price needs more time to reverse, if it's still below the candles even if on one timeframe. And if CS tells us that on TWO neighbor timeframes while testing resistance: the odds are heavily in your favor if you short. See the daily chart here. If you ignore Chiko Span you might get bullish on the huge close reclaim above Kijun Sen. Then you look at the 3D chart and you see that the daily close actually tested the 3D Kijun Sen while CS was below the candles also on the 3D. What follows is a rejection: that was a brutal bull trap and it was very easy to see with Ichimoku.
11/13View on X
11/12 In this thread I covered how to spot bull and bear traps with Ichimoku. If you found it useful feel free to share the original tweet which is the head of the thread (not this one) so it can reach more people.
12/13View on X
12/12 Previous lessons 1. The Ichimoku TA system https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1807703250189099208 2. Tenkan Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1810173264020328553 3. Kijun Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1813659904688685089 4. Real and fake TK crosses https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1815295282793390287 5. SSA https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1817833046088843737 6. SSB https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1822907741918175638 7. Kumo https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1827755204713865373 8. Chiko Span https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1830540632428827015 9. Sanyaku Signals https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1834528626513006837 10. Forecast lines https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1938597387024343199 11. Trend and range https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1945938009322336349 12. Key levels for visit and reversal https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1946341925679743281
13/13View on X

Bull and bear traps

Thread by Dr Cat@DoctorCatX · Jul 19, 2025 · 13 posts · 1,421 words · 9 min read

Bull and bear traps [Ichimoku Thread #13 🧵👇]
1/13View on X
1/12 👀🪤Even though Ichimoku is best suited for trend following, one of its advantages lays in the fact that it can help also navigate a range extremely well and give you huge hints whether some lows/highs are a trap or a real breakout - all thanks to the time factor. 🫴Here I will cover some typical situations which can give you a hint whether something is a bull/bear trap ready to reverse or not. Some of them are in the kumo, but some of them are even beyond the kumo (above the kumo for a bull trap and vice-versa). ☁️🔥 Beyond the kumo is where the best traps occur because they are overextended in the opposite territory and if you can spot them and fade them the risk/reward for a super early entry is excellent.
2/13View on X
2/12 🪤☁️First, let's start with the traps within the kumo. Obviously, a trap should occur at the bottom or top of the kumo, where the price either rejects or breaks. ❓But how can you guess which is more likely: to break the kumo or to reverse? There are a few hints for that. Of course, we already know that the kumo must not be thin if we expect it to hold but using he rest of the lines you can get further clues. 1⃣ If the kumo has flipped already bearish in the future, Tenkan Sen is crossed bearish below Kijun Sen, and Chiko Span is below the candles (or mostly touching them): the kumo top should offer strong resistance for rejection. This is a nice bull trap which you could fade. Because the PA already has a bearish bias. As opposed, if the price with such parameters tests the kumo from the other side, the kumo it's more likely to break from there.
3/13View on X
3/12 2⃣ By the time the price tests the kumo, Chiko Span is at the opposite side of the candles. I.e., if the price tries to break bullish the kumo but CS is below the candles. This is an EXTREMELY rare situation with a super high probability. I'd say, around 90% chance for this to be a bull trap
4/13View on X
4/12 3⃣ An example for a bear trap is when the price tests the bottom of kumo, while SSB is going up and Chiko Span is above the kumo. Very high chance for this support to hold and to end up as a bear trap. 🇬🇧🇯🇵This is because, translated to plain English this setup simply means: "Test the ultimate support level (SSB), while still being on an uptrend (because SSB is pointing up in the future), and while the second price (CS) is also above support". Actually in this specific case, as you see, SSB in the future actually turned down by the wick when the price tested SSB in the present. But, by the time you place your buy order you wouldn't have known that and if you had put a nice gap for SL allowing for decent wicks you would still have the odds in your favor.
5/13View on X
5/12 Now, let's see some bull and bear traps examples beyond the kumo. 👀⛳️This is where the best R:R comes because the price is overextended and a normally above the kumo most people are bullish if they can't see the red flags. 3⃣ Chiko Span hasn't closed above the kumo (or it's shadow). Remember, the kumo shadow is the most extended part of the kumo which may look like an "island" between the price and CS. For full breakout confirmation you want CS to close entirely above the kumo, including above shadows, if any. And, if you add to that another factor that SSB is going down (in the future), this increases the chance for fading this pump. ❓📈Can the price breakout? Yes of course. 🫴But if you short this setup at the level of the kumo shadow you get an excellent risk reward. You literally short the pico top. When SSB is pointing down and the price is above the kumo and CS hasn't closed above it (and its shadow) this means: "The price has entered a bullish (max-extended) territory (above kumo), while still being on a long-term downtrend (SSB pointing down), and without a confirmed breakout (because CS hasn't closed above the kumo shadow).
6/13View on X
6/12 4⃣ In this situation, the price is above the kumo but you get a Chiko Span divergence signaling a reversal. Using CS divergence you can spot the exact candle were the reversal occurs and even forecast the exact timing of the reversal in advance. And, another hint for this bull trap is again that SSB is still pointing down in the future (its flat but last turn is to the downside to be more precise).
7/13View on X
7/12 5⃣ In this situation, the price has lost Kijun Sen and is making a bearish retest. ⚠️Now keep in mind that if Kijun Sen is lost too early while Chiko Span is still above the candles it's not that clear whether it won't be reclaimed. To be more certain that it would reject when retested, you want either CS to be below the candles, or, to have a Kyushu Ashi bearish signal - as in the example below. I will post a separate educational thread about Kyushu Ashi in the future.
8/13View on X
8/12 6⃣ If the price has broken below the kumo, but keeps crawling below it without continuation and in the same time Chiko Span is above the past kumo - this is very suspicious. Theoretically if CS goes below the kumo the price can still dump, but such cases from my experience end up as bear trap around ~70% of the time. 🐻⛳️People who don't use Ichimoku in this case can see a bear flag. 🇯🇵🐻🪤But Ichimoku thanks to the time factor hints for a bear trap instead.
9/13View on X
9/12 7⃣ When by the time Chiko Span crossed the past kumo, it also starts to cross through a "forest" of candles wich are below the kumo. This is very untypical and rare to see and very suspicious. Even though CS can eventually cross the candles as well and confirm the breakout, such situations have a good chance to end up being a bear trap. 🫴📚Remember, as per the rules of the Sanyaku signals which are the healthiest breakouts, CS must have already crossed beyond the candles before the price closes beyond the kumo. So this is an example of an "unhealthy" breakout.
10/13View on X
10/12 🫴🐂🪤Last but not least, there is another example of a trap which is on the "right" side of the kumo. I.e., a bear trap below the kumo or vice versa. But this is a very rare setup to see with a super high probability when the price is overextended and with a huge chance of rejection. This is when you analyse two timeframes, one smaller and one bigger. Let's say the bigger one has 2x-3x the ratio of the smaller one. And you see that the price is testing some key deep resistance (for example, Kijun Sen), on the higher timefame, while, on a close basis Chiko Span is below the candles on BOTH timeframes. This is super likely to reject because CS tells us that the price needs more time to reverse, if it's still below the candles even if on one timeframe. And if CS tells us that on TWO neighbor timeframes while testing resistance: the odds are heavily in your favor if you short. See the daily chart here. If you ignore Chiko Span you might get bullish on the huge close reclaim above Kijun Sen. Then you look at the 3D chart and you see that the daily close actually tested the 3D Kijun Sen while CS was below the candles also on the 3D. What follows is a rejection: that was a brutal bull trap and it was very easy to see with Ichimoku.
11/13View on X
11/12 In this thread I covered how to spot bull and bear traps with Ichimoku. If you found it useful feel free to share the original tweet which is the head of the thread (not this one) so it can reach more people.
12/13View on X
12/12 Previous lessons 1. The Ichimoku TA system https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1807703250189099208 2. Tenkan Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1810173264020328553 3. Kijun Sen https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1813659904688685089 4. Real and fake TK crosses https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1815295282793390287 5. SSA https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1817833046088843737 6. SSB https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1822907741918175638 7. Kumo https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1827755204713865373 8. Chiko Span https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1830540632428827015 9. Sanyaku Signals https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1834528626513006837 10. Forecast lines https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1938597387024343199 11. Trend and range https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1945938009322336349 12. Key levels for visit and reversal https://x.com/DoctorCatX/status/1946341925679743281
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Bull and bear traps

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Bull and bear traps

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